CSU Maintains Prediction for Above-Average Hurricane Season, Recognizes Counteracting Effects of El Niño and Warmer Atlantic

In its latest, and final, forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project maintains its previous prediction, calling for an above-average season with 18 named storms.

The Tropical Meteorology Project explains that while a robust El Niño has developed and is likely to persist for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic has record warm sea surface temperatures for this time of year. As discussed in another piece about the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season WaterISAC published today, warmer Atlantic waters typically result in a more active hurricane season while a strong El Niño historically has had a dampening effect on hurricane formation. Still, the Tropical Meteorology Project notes the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average. Additionally, it reminds coastal communities that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. It advises them to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. Access the full report at CSU.