(TLP:CLEAR) Colorado State University’s Forecast for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Anticipates Below-Normal Activity
Created: Thursday, April 16, 2026 - 12:41
Categories: General Security and Resilience, Natural Disasters, Research
Summary: Last week, Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project released its “Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2026.” In contrast to last year, forecasters project the season will have somewhat below-normal activity.
Analyst Note: CSU researchers predict a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. The forecast predicts there will be 13 named storms – those reaching the criteria for hurricanes, tropical storms, or sub-tropical storms – and that there is a 32% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the entire U.S. coastline (with a 15% chance on the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida, and a 20% percent chance for the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas).
According to CSU, “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season… We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.” CSU researchers remind entities in coastal areas that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.
Organizations are encouraged to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. Indeed, Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which is currently impacting U.S. territories in the Pacific, highlights the severe impact these storms can have on critical infrastructure.
On May 20, WaterISAC will have its annual hurricane season forecast webinar along with a detailed presentation on EPA’s new Strengthening Water Infrastructure for Tomorrow (SWIFT) initiative, which aims to help boost water utilities’ resilience against natural hazards and other emergencies. Register here.
Original Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
Additional Reading:
Mitigation Recommendations:
Related WaterISAC PIRs: 16 & 17