The Number of Intense Hurricanes Set to Double by 2050, according to New Study

By 2050 the number of intense hurricanes could more than double in almost every region of the world because of climate change, according to new research. The study, published in the journal Science Advances, defined intense storms as the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane or stronger. The findings show the probability of these intense storms developing will increase and that more people will be impacted in some of the most vulnerable regions. Additionally, wind speeds during these storms could increase by as much as 20 percent and the frequency of category 4 and category 5 storms could increase by more than 200 percent in some regions.

The scientists conducted the study using a statistical prediction system called STORM to generate 10,000 years of past and future climate conditions. The team then used high-resolution wind speed maps to analyze the future changes on a local scale. The researchers believe their results are likely due to the increase in sea surface temperature around the world, associated with climate change. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel more powerful storms.

This study supports past research that WaterISAC has previously reported on that found an increasing trend in the percentage of hurricanes reaching Category 4-5 intensity. “Our results can help identify the locations prone to the largest increase in tropical cyclone risk,” said Nadia Bloemendaal, the lead author of the report. “Local governments can then take measures to reduce risk in their region, so that damage and fatalities can be reduced.” Access the full study here or read more at CNN.