As Atlantic Hurricane Season Officially Begins, Chance of Cyclone Development in Gulf of Mexico

Today marks the official first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs until November 30. Already, there is a potential system in the Gulf of Mexico, where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a 50 percent chance of a cyclone forming.

Earlier, the NHC said there was just a 20 percent chance of the system developing. But showers and thunderstorms around the area became “better organized” and the forecasted conditions seem more favorable for the system to further develop within the next day or so, making it more possible for a “short-lived” tropical depression or storm to form. By this weekend, however, the forecast is expected to be “unfavorable” for the system to substantially develop. Regardless of whether a cyclone forms, the NHC advises locally heavy rainfall could occur over portions of the Florida Panhandle through this weekend. Read more at the NHC and CBS News.

With the beginning of hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has noted the products it provides to share information with partners. Some of these include:

• Tropical Weather Outlooks, which briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT.
• Special Tropical Weather Outlooks, which are issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook.
• Standard and optional products for ongoing and potential cyclones, such as advisories and forecasts, watches and warnings, wind speed probabilities, and more.
• The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by radar.

There is an array of resources available to assist utilities with preparing for and responding to hurricanes. Some of these include:

• The Water/Wastewater Agency Response Network (WARN), which provides a method whereby water/wastewater utilities that have sustained or anticipate damages from natural or human-caused incidents can provide and receive emergency aid and assistance in the form of personnel, equipment, materials, and other associated services as necessary from other water/wastewater utilities.
• Emergency Support Function (ESF) #14, supported by CISA and FEMA and other government departments and agencies, which supports the coordination of cross-sector operations and the stabilization of critical infrastructure, including by hosting a National Business Emergency Operations Center (NBEOC) dashboard and call during hurricanes.
• EPA’s Incident Action Checklists for Water Utilities, which includes checklists for hurricanes and flooding.
• EPA’s Storm Surge Inundation Map, an interactive tool illustrates the current worst-case storm surge and inundation scenarios on the American Gulf and Atlantic Coast, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
• There are also general hurricane and natural disaster preparedness resources available via the “Tools” section of WaterISAC’s website, NOAA’s National Hurricane Preparedness website, and Ready.gov’s Hurricanes website.