Trends in Islamic Extremism: Factors Impacting the Future Threat

A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies focuses on several key trends in Islamic extremism and terrorism. It addresses an extraordinarily complex and uncertain mix of variables – ones where there is little agreement among experts on the relative nature and importance of any given factor, much less how they interact, and the relative importance of any given one on the overall mix of forces that are shaping the future of the trends in violent Islamic extremism. The first set of variables focuses on the question: Is Islamic extremism different than other forms of extremism? The report notes that while the difference in ideology between this form and others (e.g., anarchist) is very real, the difference in behavior and willingness to use violence can often be far smaller. The report warns that Islamic extremism is likely to be a serious challenge for at least the next decade, and its underlying causes are so strong and serious that they can only be addressed by policies that mix efforts to remove the underlying causes illustrated in this analysis, or by efforts to contain the threat to key high-risk countries.