(TLP:CLEAR) Research Report – Heightened Geopolitical Tensions Shaping the U.S. Violent Extremist Threat Landscape in 2026

Summary: Over the next twelve months, U.S.-based domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) will almost certainly plot acts of violence in the U.S. homeland, according to a recent report from the cybersecurity firm Recorded Future. In addition, the Iran war and its cascading socio-economic impacts are very likely to influence violent extremist attack plotting.

Analyst Note: Several recent violent extremist attacks and thwarted plots support the report’s assessment. In June, for example, the FBI reported that it thwarted an alleged violent extremist plot to attack the UFC event at the White House. This alleged DVE plot involved several attackers conducting a complex coordinated attack, utilizing explosive drones, which if properly executed could have led to significant loss of life. Also in June, a self-described DVE was arrested for allegedly conducting arson attacks on electric infrastructure. The attacker was purportedly motivated, in part, by the conflict with Iran. Consequently, the report’s key findings about the next twelve months include:

• Iran-nexus physical threat actors will very likely attempt to target facilities and personnel in the U.S. that they associate with the U.S. or Israeli government and military, although the sophistication, impact, and frequency of these plots will likely be limited by Iran’s capability gaps.
• HVE Islamic State supporters will be the most likely violent extremist threat actors to conduct mass-casualty attacks in the U.S., particularly during the period between October 2026 and January 2027.
• Instructional and ideological material produced by the neo-Nazi accelerationist movement will very likely continue to drive mass-casualty attack plots and sabotage against critical infrastructure, despite the fragmentation of neo-Nazi accelerationist organizations and online networks.
• Anti-government and anti-authority violent extremists motivated by partisan animus will almost certainly pursue targeted physical attacks against high-profile public officials; secondary effects of the Iran War and the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle will very likely exacerbate these risks.
• Anarchist violent extremists will likely employ increasingly sophisticated and destructive means of conducting attacks targeting facilities and property, particularly targets they associate with U.S. immigration enforcement policies.

Original Source: https://www.recordedfuture.com/research/iran-violent-extremism-landscape

Additional Reading:

• (TLP:GREEN) Research Report – U.S. Violent Extremists Likely Shifting Focus to Targeted Physical Threats in 2025
• (TLP:AMBER) Fusion Center Report – Domestic Violent Extremists Increasingly Advocate for Arson Attacks

Mitigation Recommendation:

• US Violent Extremist Mobilization Indicators 2021 Edition
• Infrastructure Survey Tool (IST)
• Protective Security Advisor Program
• Security Planning Workbook

Related WaterISAC PIRs: 1, 2, 3, & 4