NOAA Predicts Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published its 2021 Hurricane Season Outlook, which predicts a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. However, NOAA states its experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. This forecast is similar to the one previously provided by the Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project, which predicts above-normal activity for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (WaterISAC reported on this forecast in its April 8 Security & Resilience Update). NOAA’s Outlook also includes predictions for the Central Pacific and the Eastern Pacific. For the Central Pacific, it says there is a 45 percent chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity, with a 35 percent chance for below-normal activity, and 20 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the Eastern Pacific, it indicates a near- or below-normal season is most likely (80 percent combined chance), with a 45 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 35 percent chance of a below-normal season, followed by a 20 percent chance of an above-normal season. Read the outlook at NOAA.