Growing Energy Demand Puts Half of North America at Risk of Blackouts, according to NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessment

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) recently released its 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA), which assessed that over half of the North American power grid could be at risk of energy shortfalls in the next five to 10 years, among other findings. Amid the potential for future energy disruptions, utilities can take steps now to enhance their power resilience.

NERC’s report notes that “Electricity peak demand and energy growth forecasts over the 10-year assessment period continue to climb; demand growth is now higher than at any point in the past two decades.” And due to that increase, as noted above, more than half of North America faces a risk of energy shortfalls in the next five to 10 years as data centers and a general electrification across the economy drive electricity demand higher, while generator retirements threaten resource adequacy. Additionally, summer demand is forecast to rise by more than 122 GW in the next decade, adding 15.7% to current system peaks. NERC said its 10-year summer peak demand forecast has grown by more than 50% within the last year. To address the energy and capacity risks identified in the report, NERC has five recommendations for all stakeholders to consider, which are detailed below.

• Integrated Resource Planners, market operators, and regulators: Carefully manage generator deactivations.
• NERC and Regional Entities: Improve the LTRA by incorporating new analysis and criteria to inform stakeholders of future reliability risks.
• Regulators and Policymakers: Streamline siting and permitting processes to remove barriers to resource and transmission development.
• Regulators, electric industry, and gas industry member organizations: Implement a framework for addressing the operating and planning needs of the interconnected natural gas-electric energy system.
• Regional transmission organizations, independent system operators, and FERC: Continue to ensure essential reliability services are maintained.

Access the full report at NERC, read a NERC press release, or read a relevant media article.

Preparedness and Resilience Information:

To help mitigate potential disruptions from power outages, utilities are encouraged to reassess their electricity needs and take steps to enhance their operational resilience.

In addition to the “Power Resilience Guide,” EPA has created an incident action checklist for power outages and a brochure for tips on generator preparedness. Critical infrastructure organizations can also greatly enhance their power resilience and operate during outages by building a microgrid at their facility. According to a recent article in Water Online, “microgrids can be configured to use existing onsite generation such as diesel generators, but you can also reduce the cost and use of fossil-fuel generators by incorporating renewable energy alternatives.”

A few years ago, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory organized a workshop that identified barriers between sectors and created strategies for increasing coordination and integrated planning between water and electric utilities. That study can be accessed here.

Utilities can also utilize the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator, which helps entities estimate the economic impacts of power interruptions. Furthermore, CISA’s “Resilient Power Best Practices for Critical Facilities and Sites” offers guidance and discusses power resilience in regards to the all-hazards threat landscape. Lastly, utilities can apply for grants, like FEMA’s BRIC program.