CSU Publishes Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, Continues to Predict an Extremely Active Season

This week, Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project released an update to its “Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024.” The updated forecast continues to predict an extremely active season, with the rapid intensification of Hurricane Beryl last month likely a harbinger of storm activity for the remainder of the season.

Indeed, Hurricane Beryl’s rapid intensification into a Category 5 storm broke multiple milestones, including the earliest Category 5 hurricane (July 17, 2005) for the season. Experts note this sort of unprecedented activity is to be expected this year due to how favorable hurricane conditions have already become. Consequently, the updated CSU forecast now calls for 25 named storms for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. CSU anticipates a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. Specifically, CSU assesses there is a 57% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the entire U.S. coastline (with a 31% chance on the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida, and a 38% percent chance for the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas). Access the full report at CSU.

With the hurricane season projected to be extremely active, organizations are encouraged to start preparing now for potential impacts. Forecasters emphasize it takes just one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for those in its path and remind everyone in areas at risk of hurricanes to prepare the same every season. Last month, WaterISAC updated its hurricane resource for water and wastewater utilities. The guide “(TLP:GREEN) WaterISAC Hurricane Season Resource Guide – May 2024”  includes numerous resources regarding hurricanes, including forecasts of hurricane activity; websites for real-time monitoring of hurricane conditions; and tools for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from hurricanes.

WaterISAC encourages members to review these resources (which can also be found in its resource guidebook) for more information on how water and wastewater utilities can prepare for hurricanes and other natural disasters:

• EPA – Incident Action Checklist – Hurricane
• EPA – Build Flood Resilience at Your Water and Wastewater Utility
• EPA – Develop or Update an Emergency Response Plan
• EPA – Mutual Aid and Assistance for Drinking Water and Wastewater Utilities
• CISA – Tropical Cyclones
• Ready.gov – Hurricanes