After Barry, What’s in Store for the Next Few Weeks?

Areas affected over the last few days by Barry, which at its height reached hurricane status, were largely spared significant impacts due to the system depositing less rain and resulting in less flooding than originally predicted. With the storm gone, what’s the outlook for the near future? Not much, according to forecasters at AccuWeather. Each year, from around July 1 to mid-August, coastal states get a short window to catch their breaths as tropical activity goes into a quiet period. Why is this? Storms form from two main ingredients: tropical waves moving across the Atlantic and interactions between jet streams and the tropics. The second factor, the interactions between jet streams and the tropics, is the catalyst behind many of the storms that form early in the season, from June to early July. That interaction with the jet stream over the Gulf of Mexico sparked Tropical Storm Barry. However, by the latter half of July, the location of the jet stream typically changes and shifts north. The interaction that formed Barry would not occur in the middle to latter weeks of July because of that shift.

In the rest of the tropics, water temperatures are also below peak temperature, which assists in hampering storm development. However, the major factor behind this quiet period is the widespread availability of Saharan dust. Because of the dryness carried by the dust-laden winds from Africa, many of the waves that come off African coasts are buffeted, thus preventing tropical development. Another contributing factor to the slow period is the strong wind shear in the tropics that is common in this season. But it’s important to not get lulled into a false sense of security, as all of those factors change like clockwork starting mid-August and extending into September. During this time, water temperatures reach their peaks, wind shear lessens, and most importantly, the transport of Saharan dust is reduced significantly. From these factors, the entire Atlantic basin becomes a dangerous breeding ground for the development of tropical storms. Read the article at AccuWeather.