(TLP:CLEAR) NOAA Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Created: Thursday, May 28, 2026 - 15:25
Categories: Federal & State Resources, Natural Disasters
Summary: Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. Meteorologists at NOAA predict a below-normal hurricane season this year. Still, in coastal areas it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season, highlighting the importance of hurricane preparedness.
Analyst Note: For the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, NOAA predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in its assessment.
NOAA’s forecast is similar to the one released in April by the Colorado State University (CSU). CSU estimates there will be 13 named storms this season. Similarly, another forecaster, WeatherTiger, predicts a below-average season as well, with numbers close to NOAA’s. Furthermore, WeatherTiger assesses that based on the current data there is a 20% chance of no U.S. hurricane landfalls, 65% odds that there will be one or two, and just a 15% probability of three or more. And there is a 30% chance of at least one U.S. major hurricane landfall in 2026.
Lastly, WaterISAC encourages members to watch the recording of last week’s Natural Disaster Threat Briefing, which provided a detailed forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season and a discussion on EPA’s new Strengthening Water Infrastructure for Tomorrow (SWIFT) initiative.
Original Sources:
- https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season
- https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/weathertigers-atlantic-hurricane-e0d
Additional Reading:
- (TLP:AMBER) Fusion Center Report – Violent Extremists Use of Improvised Explosive Devices
- (TLP:GREEN) The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Was More Significant than One Might Think
Mitigation Recommendations:
Related WaterISAC PIRs: 16 & 17