(TLP:CLEAR) CTC Sentinel – September 2025: Examining the Al Qa‘ida Threat 24 Years After 9/11

Summary: The Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point published its “Sentinel” magazine for September 2025. This latest issue assesses the state of al Qa‘ida 24 years on from the 9/11 attacks and the prospects of U.S. military action against drug cartels.

Analyst Note: The issue’s featured article analyzes the current state of al-Qa`ida, two dozen years after the attacks of September 11th. The authors write, “Al-Qa`ida has evolved considerably over the past four decades. Today, it is no longer a hierarchical organization with charismatic leadership, but rather a decentralized network of franchise groups dispersed throughout Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and beyond … Al-Qa`ida Central, including its senior leadership, has been attenuated, but the organization’s branches in Somalia and the Sahel are gaining momentum, and there is growing concern that al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is also looking to rebound … Even in its diminished form, 24 years after the 9/11 attacks, al-Qa`ida and its global network of affiliates pose a serious latent security threat, including to the West, which takes these groups for granted at its own peril.”

In the issue’s feature article, the author explores the prospect of, and the potential outcomes, U.S. military action against cartels in Mexico. In it, he describes a complex landscape of actors—from the foreign terrorist organization (FTO)-designated cartels to the Mexican government to opportunistic hostile foreign powers—with various motives, objectives, and potential counter-responses that could shape and complicate the trajectory of U.S. military involvement.

Original Source: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/ctc-sentinel/ 

Additional Reading:

• Twenty-Four Years After 9/11, What is the State of the Global Terrorism?
• US, Mexico launch joint initiative to tackle cross-border gun trafficking

Related WaterISAC PIRs: 1, 2, & 4