NOAA Predicts Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced its prediction of near-normal activity for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1.

Specifically, NOAA’s outlook predicts a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season. It forecasts a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA attributes its forecast for a less active season than in recent years to competing factors, including some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it. These include El Niño’s influence, the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, and longer-term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

NOAA’s outlook is comparable to the one released in mid-April by the Colorado State University (CSU) – reported on by WaterISAC here. While predicting below-average activity overall, CSU’s outlook predicted 13 named storms, with potentially 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Both organizations encouraged organizations to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. With its announcement, NOAA quoted FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, who said, “As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path.”

Read the outlook at NOAA.