NOAA Forecasts Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. Meteorologists at NOAA predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year, highlighting the importance of hurricane preparedness.

Specifically, NOAA’s outlook predicts a predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. It forecasts a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA explains its forecast of above-normal activity is due to a confluence of factors. These include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, and reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

NOAA’s forecast is similar to the one released in April by the Colorado State University (CSU) (reported on by WaterISAC here). CSU estimates there will be 23 named storms this season. It also is comparable to WeatherTiger’s Hurricane Watch prediction, which was discussed a few weeks ago in WaterISAC’s quarterly natural disaster threat briefing (a recording of the presentation can be viewed here). Additionally, WaterISAC recently published a “Hurricane Season Resource Guide – May 2024” to help members enhance their operational resilience and with their preparedness efforts. This comprehensive guidebook includes numerous resources regarding hurricanes, including forecasts of hurricane activity; websites for real-time monitoring of hurricane conditions; and tools for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from hurricanes. 

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.” Access the full outlook at NOAA.