CSU Releases Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, Maintains Prediction of Extremely Active Season

Today, Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project released an update to its “Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024.” The update maintains its previous prediction of an extremely active season, anticipating 23 named storms for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

The updated forecast continues to anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Specifically, CSU assess that there is a 62% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the entire U.S. coastline (with a 34% chance on the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida, and a 42% percent chance for the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas). Additionally, the CSU team “anticipate that La Niña conditions will develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, likely resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.” Moreover, sea surface temperatures remain at record warm levels, which offers a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification, according to CSU. Notably, this forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early June outlook. Access the full report at CSU.

With the hurricane season projected to be extremely active, organizations are encouraged to start preparing now for potential impacts. Forecasters emphasize it takes just one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for those in its path and remind everyone in areas at risk of hurricanes to prepare the same every season. Last month, WaterISAC updated its hurricane resource for water and wastewater utilities. The guide, “(TLP:GREEN) WaterISAC Hurricane Season Resource Guide – May 2024,”  includes numerous resources regarding hurricanes, including forecasts of hurricane activity; websites for real-time monitoring of hurricane conditions; and tools for preparing for, responding to, and recovering from hurricanes.

WaterISAC encourages members to review these resources (which can also be found in its resource guidebook) for more information on how water and wastewater utilities can prepare for hurricanes and other natural disasters:

• EPA – Incident Action Checklist – Hurricane
• EPA – Build Flood Resilience at Your Water and Wastewater Utility
• EPA – Develop or Update an Emergency Response Plan
• EPA – Mutual Aid and Assistance for Drinking Water and Wastewater Utilities
• CISA – Tropical Cyclones
• Ready.gov – Hurricanes