(TLP:CLEAR) New USGS Tool Provides AI-Powered Drought Forecasts
Created: Thursday, April 23, 2026 - 11:43
Categories: General Security and Resilience, Natural Disasters
Summary: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently released River DroughtCast, an AI-powered tool that forecasts when rivers and streams will drop to abnormally low levels. With this tool, the USGS hopes to fill the current gap in drought prediction between short-term weather forecasts and seasonal water supply outlooks. In the case of municipal water managers, these predictions may help to inform implementation of conservation measures.
River DroughtCast currently provides forecasts for more than 3,000 USGS streamgage locations, allowing for forecasts between one and 13 weeks. The tool is the most reliable in the first four to six weeks. Regardless of the length of the forecast, the first week of severe or extreme drought conditions are correctly predicted approximately 75% of the time. This reliability drops to approximately 55% of the time by week 13. All forecasts include confidence estimates so users can understand the reliability of predictions during different timeframes. Developers are working on the next version to expand public access to areas without gauges and to further improve forecast accuracy.
Analyst Note: According to the latest update from the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), drought is worsening across much of the U.S. The South/Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Lower Midwest, and scattered areas of the High Plains and West are the most affected. As of April 14, 2026, 51% of the United States and Puerto Rico and 61% of the Lower 48 states are in drought. In its most recent “Threat Analysis Report,” WaterISAC described how drought had “stressed water supplies and tested the operational resilience of water utilities.” To demonstrate such challenges, it shared examples of recent drought events and their impacts on water and wastewater utilities, including in New York City, New Jersey, and central Texas. As these cases showed, water managers and other government officials often must resort to conservation measures while drought conditions persist. U.S. EPA’s “Incident Action Checklist – Drought” discusses this and other drought response measures.
Original Sources:
Additional Reading:
- Smart Water Magazine: U.S. Geological Survey launches AI-powered drought forecasting tool with up to 90-day horizon
- NIDIS: https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
- WaterISAC: Threat Analysis for the Water and Wastewater Sector (October 2025)
Mitigation Recommendations:
- U.S. EPA: Incident Action Checklist – Drought
Related WaterISAC PIRs: 16 & 18