NOAA Upgrades Storm Surge Prediction Model in the Face of Climate Change

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-Surge) model to version 3.0. The agency utilizes the P-Surge model as its primary method for predicting storm surges for high-impact weather events, like hurricanes and tropical storms, impacting the continental U.S., Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The model’s new capabilities include the ability to simultaneously run the model for two separate storms hitting the U.S., improved calculations regarding friction over different land surfaces, and new surge, tide, and updated forecasts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

With the increase in hurricane season activity and duration, as well as the growing intensity of storms in general, storm surges are becoming more deadly to U.S. citizens. With updated predictions, NOAA will be able to provide more accurate surge projections that will assist in future resilience and response efforts. Read more at NOAA.