This August Might Be the Quietist in 25 Years, but Hurricane Season Could Awaken in September

The Atlantic hasn’t had a named storm (a hurricane, tropical storm, or sub-tropical storm) all August, but this unusual behavior may be about to end as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking two systems that have decent chances for development.

August is typically the beginning of the hurricane season’s most active phase. And there’s only been two Augusts without a named storm in more than more than seven decades of recordkeeping — one in 1961 and the other in 1997. That means this month – if a named storm doesn’t develop in the next couple days – will be the quietest August in 25 years. However, the NHC is currently tracking two systems, one of which could grow enough to receive a name by Wednesday. The NHC has given that system, which a little more than halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean, a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical system in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance of forming within the next five days. Right now, the forecast models have the system staying north of the Leeward Islands, making a curve to the northeast, and staying out to sea. Right now, it does not pose a direct threat to the U.S. But that could change, especially given how far out the system still is. Depending on how it develops, the system could pose a threat to the U.S. around Labor Day. For the second system, which is just off the coast of West Africa, the NHC is giving it 20 and 40 percent chances of formation in the next 48 hours and 5 days, respectively. From that distance, it would take nearly two weeks to reach U.S. shores, if ever. Read more at Bloomberg News, USA Today, and CNN.