Climate Change Makes Availability of Water Less Predictable, New Research Finds

Water supplies are set to increasingly fluctuate and become more difficult to predict in snow-dominated regions across the Northern Hemisphere later on in the century if warming temperature trends due to climate change persist, according to new research.

The study, led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), sought to understand the future of water resources in a world where climate change induces higher temperature and varying precipitation and how these factors could alter snow accumulation and runoff patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. The study concluded that even in areas that are projected to receive the same levels of precipitation, streamflow will become more variable and unpredictable. The researchers also found snowpack is melting earlier and even declining in many regions. “This decline will become so pronounced toward the end of the century that the amount of water contained in snowpack at the end of an average winter in parts of the U.S. Rocky Mountains could plummet by nearly 80 percent,” according to the study. Additionally, assuming high greenhouse gas emissions, there will be an average of about 45 more snow-free days annually in the Northern Hemisphere. In May, WaterISAC reported on a similar study that focused on the Colorado River Basin and also projected a large loss of snowpack due to climate change.

“Snow-related metrics are critical for informing society’s management of precious water resources,” said Keith Musselman, a hydrologist at the University of Colorado Boulder and co-author of the study. “As utilities and civil works agencies plan new reservoirs and other infrastructure to adapt to a changing climate, we must address basic research questions about the changing characteristics of winter snowpack and resulting streamflow that we have long relied upon.” Access the full study here or read a related news article.