A new report from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) examines the connection between human-caused climate change and increasing extreme weather events. This report, Explaining Extreme Events in 2020 from a Climate Perspective, comprises 18 new peer-reviewed studies of extreme weather across the globe during 2020. One of the studies, conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), investigated the drought in the American Southwest. Climate researchers “using several different model simulations found climate change may have increased the likelihood that the monsoon-season rains would fail as they did in 2020,” according to NOAA. Another study concluded that a heat wave in Western Europe during May 2020 was made 40 times more likely by human-caused climate change.
Interestingly, several studies over the past few years have concluded that climate change is reducing the likelihood of certain extreme weather conditions, specifically cold outbreaks and heavy precipitation. Four separate studies, for instance, which analyzed annual spring rains in China in 2020 discovered that heavy precipitation was less likely and less intense because of climate change conditions. Nevertheless, climate change is still inducing more frequent and intense water crises, such as droughts and flooding. For example, extremely dry conditions and low precipitation has severely stressed water systems throughout the American West. These trends are likely to persist.
Additionally, intense thunderstorms across the American Great Plains region over the past few weeks have some observers questioning the connection between these unseasonal events and climate change. The link between climate change and more frequent or intense tornadoes is still debated. Still, what is clear is that warmer atmospheric conditions provided the perfect environment for destructive storms to form across the central U.S. in the winter. An event which would have ben less likely in a colder past.
Ultimately, “this report [and other climate research] reinforces the scientific consensus that human influence has created a new climate — one that is impacting extreme events today,” said Stephanie Herring, a NOAA climate scientist. “As humans continue to emit billions of tons of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere, these extreme weather impacts are highly likely to increase.” Access the full report at NOAA.
